Swag Bag Bonanza

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As the NFL season begins, a state in close proximity to the New England Patriots became the latest to attempt to curb the influence of the trading platforms. On 10 September, one day after the Pats’ season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont addressed the growth of the markets during a speech in downtown Hartford. On the same day, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to nine unregulated operators, including Polymarket, Robinhood and Underdog Predict.

“Prediction markets have branded themselves as legal and safe, but the reality is they are not adhering to Connecticut’s consumer protection standards,” Lamont wrote in a statement.

While such orders have become customary around the nation this year, Connecticut’s missive took it one step further. The department also issued nearly 30 subpoenas to licensed gaming service providers and a bevy of media outlets. Those issued subpoenas include ones served to PayPal, Sportradar Solutions and Plaid, a payment processing app that holds a gaming licence. Although those companies are not under investigation, the subpoenas appear to be the first against service providers that conduct business with prediction markets in some form.

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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

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Younger patrons are increasingly familiar with crypto, but the lack of regulatory adoption in the regulated space can push bettors to offshore or unlicensed platforms, most of which do accept it. At the ICE Barcelona conference in 2025, a panel of international sports betting CEOs lamented the fact that they were barred from adopting crypto, while their black-market competitors were not.

A report released in June by payment provider Paysafe said the percentage of online sports bettors who dabble in crypto is 64%, more than double the US average of 30%. Crypto deposits are only legal in two states, Wyoming and Colorado, but crypto withdrawals are not legal anywhere – 85% of respondents said they would welcome withdrawals as an option, Paysafe said.

“When permitted, crypto would become a top-three payment option for funding deposits (after digital wallets and debit cards), and a top-two payment preference in New York and Illinois,” the report said.