Oktoberfest

About Oktoberfest

Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.

Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.

The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.

How to play Oktoberfest

Just the rumors of this had spurred BTC past $58,000 a token, but then whoops, it crashed again by about $10,000 in a matter of minutes. This is what corporate America wants to put on its balance sheets? A pseudo-asset that they won’t even know the value of any given minute? Speedballing by comparison seems quite the mild, conservative habit to engage in. But the BTC crowd certainly has one thing absolutely right. Having extra fiat money on your balance sheet, especially U.S. dollars, at this point in monetary history, is extremely dangerous, even suicidal. Corporations are going to have to get rid of them real soon, because the U.S. dollar is about to completely implode. And with the U.S. dollar, will go every single other fiat currency in the world in real purchasing power terms.

Once it becomes obvious, it will be too late to do anything about it. It doesn’t matter how great a company you have. If you are interested in preserving your company, there is only one thing you can do. Replace any extra fiat currency stuck on your balance sheet with real money, with gold, now, or you will sink together with all the inflated paper nothing units on your balance sheets.

I concede, CEOs know much more about business than I do. That’s why they are business leaders and I am not, nor will I ever be. So who the hell am I then? I will say confidently, I absolutely know my place in this world. It is as clear to me as the sun. I may not understand much about doing business, but I know what money is, and I know what money is not. I know what happens to unbacked paper currency when governments shut down the world and blast currency from monetary firehoses all over the world until we are all drowning in it. It dies.

How to play Oktoberfest

Then there are the financial implications, namely new revenue streams. Prediction market operators typically pay media companies to integrate their data while some outlets also earn referral commissions for driving new business to yes/no exchanges.

At least one well-known cable network has a financial stake in a major prediction market operator.

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