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At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives.
However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026.
The partnership with Yahoo Finance wraps up as prediction markets push for broader distribution across financial media, sports, and entertainment platforms. For Polymarket, the loss of the Yahoo Finance hub is one distribution channel, but other partnerships remain intact.
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“But that is not just marketing. It also goes into product and into the way that you develop your offering and how you localise what you present or you offer to your customers. And without leaving out local talent, because of course the success also comes from the level of understanding of the market and the cultural embracement and to understand what the customers are really looking into when they have to choose between operators.
“Peru is our legacy. It’s one of our four markets here, so it plays a pivotal role in our ways of operating. Of course, we put a lot of focus into making Peru the market where we put attention and we are really careful about developing in terms of product, and also operationally.”
Like Betsson, Stake is trying to combine its global scale with a deep understanding of local markets in LatAm. It now holds local LatAm licences in Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Mexico, as well as the Province of Buenos Aires in Argentina.
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“It was still very much a trading kind of UX,” he said of Kalshi at the beginning of the year. “The actual product offering has come a long way.”
Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”
Jefferies described market makers as the ecosystem’s “liquidity backbone”. They post executable bids and offers, manage inventory and provide prices when customer activity is heavily weighted to one side.
